Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-09 154.031645 185.618747 224.459673 276.581421 346.035441 4.374182e+02 5.703170e+02
2025-03-16 112.603567 147.099242 194.601805 267.357351 381.025293 5.616841e+02 8.944304e+02
2025-03-23 97.820822 136.113152 193.874400 292.900317 471.805455 8.149127e+02 1.637514e+03
2025-03-30 83.772316 121.762324 182.879848 296.776180 527.376447 1.045913e+03 2.644060e+03
2025-04-06 74.947720 113.094752 178.020703 308.528149 603.068683 1.382541e+03 4.594525e+03
2025-04-13 65.946126 102.214511 166.519214 303.311409 639.363524 1.658128e+03 7.185435e+03
2025-04-20 62.610871 100.269827 170.504179 331.092273 772.743107 2.398953e+03 1.642137e+04
2025-04-27 59.265675 97.631637 172.429846 354.995813 913.912128 3.431084e+03 4.321946e+04
2025-05-04 55.864739 94.278435 172.103247 373.437527 1054.615847 4.821526e+03 1.425003e+05
2025-05-11 52.380480 90.203827 169.367104 384.774150 1182.586994 6.588426e+03 7.054576e+05
2025-05-18 48.829871 85.485462 164.285093 387.993341 1284.544739 8.653061e+03 9.568910e+06
2025-05-25 45.110890 79.949694 156.363611 380.441447 1336.034279 1.059261e+04 NaN
2025-06-01 41.522523 74.445023 148.043541 370.691191 1380.264194 1.302548e+04 NaN
2025-06-08 38.086854 68.896947 138.798604 355.502969 1387.909271 1.523523e+04 NaN
2025-06-15 37.499750 69.378073 144.474710 392.555053 1743.230718 3.054136e+04 NaN
2025-06-22 35.559305 66.641898 141.475643 398.168291 1916.558102 4.744165e+04 NaN
2025-06-29 34.247138 65.158064 141.513411 415.536236 2213.620454 9.170085e+04 NaN
2025-07-06 32.175898 61.712377 135.686346 407.798140 2301.296005 1.347071e+05 NaN
2025-07-13 31.846497 62.274992 141.075126 449.172280 2944.612650 5.644825e+05 NaN
2025-07-20 31.276054 62.194016 144.641107 485.160139 3675.287982 5.156828e+06 NaN
2025-07-27 30.480390 61.472205 146.194824 513.161755 4444.821438 4.612136e+09 NaN
2025-08-03 29.471088 60.110915 145.566282 530.474927 5163.813412 NaN NaN
2025-08-10 28.273123 58.155505 142.762891 535.404893 5722.511938 NaN NaN